Was "Saresh, of the Weeping Black" loot adjusted?

Earlier in the week, 10 runs resulted in 8 Screams of the Desiccated(Belt) and 2 Broken Elegy(Staff)
Now, 20 runs resulted in 5 Screams of the Desiccated(Belt) And 15 Broken Elegy(Staff)

I am aware of RNG being RNG, however this variance is rather large. The belt is listed at roughly 53% drop rate. Running the map may no longer be worth it with current prices. The Map 666c and the Belt 1550c.

Anyone notice a shift in drop rates?

Edit: Not saying anything changed, asking for others experience as my sample size is small.

I mean you state "I know RNG is RNG"......but then proceed to completely dismiss what it means.

So do you actually know what RNG means? Mathematically?

"I know that 'the house always wins' and my odds are less than 50%....but last week I won $200 and this week I'm down $400. Did they change the rules?"

Seems reading isn't one of your strong suits. "know" wasn't said, It was "aware". I am asking for others experiences in the matter.

The variance isn't *that* large.

"Not saying anything changed", well the current title suggests otherwise. At least that's what adjusting means.

Since when does asking a question make it a statement?

And, yes. That variance is large. Within the realm of possibility? Yes. Still is large. This is why asking questions and not assuming helps understand better. Which is what I am doing.

Neither of you have participated in the subject or had anything substantial to say besides trolling. Why are you bothering to post? It would be better for everyone if both of you never talked, and let this thread dying from lack of interaction.

It's still 50%. Streamers and gamblers buy all belts at any price when they want to gamble so blowing up Saresh is always ~40c (mirage map) + 1/2 value of belt - barya cost in profit. Probably better than most boss farms.

Go pick up a coin right now and flip it 10 times. How many times did it land on head? That is quite literally the drop rate of the belt.

People aren't trolling you. They gave their answers because you use the terms "RNG is RNG" and "small sample size" while contradicting the terms simultaneously.

Ive noticed this as well. staff seems way more common. I wouldn't post much here for info, or anything else. Ask a question and get 3 instant posts parsing your question. live and learn.

Its all the same.

You just had good luck with RNG before - that's all.

Im did 19x Starfall Craters - and got 0x Svallinn's - that's how it works.

And some guy like PoeGuy007 if do 20x Starfall would get like 10x Svallinn's.

That's all.

I had that 15/20 runs Staff statistics like you mentioned in the first week of the league - so i've just stopped running boss, and start to sell map fragments - belts anyway like 10-50x ways overpriced for good ones (2x auras Accelerating/Diamond/Echoing/Gloom combos - the ones you've probably not acquired even from 1000x boss kills), they not come close to regular/Good 2x implicit corrupted 4x Flask Mageblood.

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Mabuz#5315 wrote:

Seems reading isn't one of your strong suits. "know" wasn't said, It was "aware". I am asking for others experiences in the matter.

I can guarantee you, my reading is fine. I read far more into your post than you probably even grasped yourself writing it.

aware implies know. You cannot be "aware" of RNG without knowing what it means lol (at least on a basic functional level). Unless you are specifically stating you know the term "RNG" is used in conjunction with drops but have absolutely no idea to what it refers. You may not know the exact mathematical breakdowns of every single scenario, but I wasn't implying that. I was merely stating that you being "aware" of RNG means that you should also be "aware" that your results likely ARE RNG. On either side of your results btw, I'm sure you are only looking at "post-change" as something that could have been out of the norm, but maybe you should consider that your FIRST results are the ones that were outside of the RNG normal. Instead, though you disregarded all of that.


On a separate note, you are using "variance" incorrectly. Variance is NOT the difference between your own trials.....it is the statistical average distance from the mean (50%). In this case, the variance is still LOW because your data results fall well within the normal bell curve expected of a 50% probability roll.


What you actually mean in correct statistical terms is that the "Deviation" of your results is great.


Also, "experiences in the matter" mean very little, especially when YOU were the one who brought up RNG right away. Unless of course you happen to find a player who stops here with 1000 trials before the patch, and 1000 trials after the patch to compare.

I'll drop this here because it illustrates WHY your assessment is flawed:
To calculate a 50% probability with high validity (high confidence and precision), you typically need approximately 385 to 1,067 trials, depending on the level of certainty you require.

You did 30. Do another 1000 and reassess your feeling. Although unfortunately you only have the 10 results prior to this supposed "change" to compare anything to, making it statistically impossible for you to gauge whether anything changed. But even with your 30 total trials.....you got 13 belts, pretty damn close to 50% even in your limited sample size. You erroneously discard your first 10 trials simply because you were "lucky" for them, and "unlucky" for the others. "Aware of RNG".